The cryptocurrency market remains under bear control on Monday (November 18) as all top 10 cryptocurrencies swim in the red. Ethereum, XRP, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Litecoin (LTC), and Stellar (XLM) are posting losses of between -0.4% to -2.9% according to data provided by CoinGecko.
Bitcoin is trading at a low of $8,450.67 at press time. This bearishness casts a spotlight on the long-term potential of the dominant asset and one analyst is highlighting four possible scenarios to expect for BTC in the long-term.
Potential Scenarios For Bitcoin In The Long-Term
Most bitcoin investors HODL the asset with hopes of reaping huge benefits in the long-term. It is still an asset class laden with high volatility and uncertainties but if bitcoin overcomes these hurdles in the long-term, then its investors will be smiling all the way to the bank.
Also, many have speculated where the top crypto will be in the next 10 or so years, with predictions ranging from Bitcoin dethroning the US dollar to become the global reserve currency, or that it will crush to zero and be forgotten.
Widely cited economist and trader Alex Krüger took to Twitter to point out four possible scenarios for Bitcoin in the long-term. Here are the four scenarios:
- Bitcoin becomes a global reserve currency
When Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009, no one could have predicted that ten years later, people would be having discussions about the possibility of Bitcoin becoming the de facto reserve currency. But with each passing day, the chorus of Bitcoin becoming a reserve currency is getting louder.
However, this might not happen for one major reason: Bitcoin is too volatile. Until the digital asset provides greater price stability, most consumers and governments are unlikely to give up their preference for fiat, with the US dollar as the global reserve currency.
- Due to bitcoin’s scarcity, the top crypto will continue to outperform other assets
There’s no denying that Bitcoin is highly scarce and it simply cannot be counterfeited. Bitcoin has been the best performing asset this year after surging from lows of $3,500 to close to $14,000. And even at current levels, the coin is still up substantially year-to-date, outperforming traditional assets. With the halving in May 2020, the coin will only become more scarce and Bitcoin will likely continue outperforming in the years to come.
- Bitcoin eventually matures and settles into a wide range
In due time, the now nascent crypto market will mature and as this happens, more retail and institutional investors will join in due to the immense profits that can potentially be garnered. Over time, we will see more products like futures, options, and ETFs which will boost the stability of bitcoin’s price. In this kind of scenario, the price of Bitcoin will stabilize within a certain range similar to what other commodities do after several bull markets.
- Bitcoin’s value drops to zero and disappears from the face of the earth
The fourth unfortunate scenario is where Bitcoin becomes worthless in the long-term. Most Bitcoin skeptics invested in the traditional markets have long claimed that Bitcoin is based on nothing and will, therefore, collapse to zero eventually.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin fundamentals look stronger than ever. Institutional investors are flooding the markets as seen by surging Bakkt and CME trading volumes, the hash rate continues to rise, and users continue to use Bitcoin for payments. Therefore, this is a very unlikely scenario.
The subsequent Twitter poll saw as much as 47% of 4,522 respondents choose the third scenario (where Bitcoin settles into a wide range) as the most likely outcome.
Question Is, In What Price Range Will It Stabilize At?
After the overwhelming majority voted that Bitcoin will settle within a range in the long-term, Kruger then asked his followers what price range they think Bitcoin will settle in. He gave four options: above 100K, 30K-100K, 10K-30K, and below 10K. According to the final results, 45 percent believe Bitcoin will settle above 100K.
With combined efforts of both already running companies in the cryptocurrency space and the new financial institutions entering, the Bitcoin market (cryptocurrency market in general) has demonstrated some vital signs of progress and growth over the last couple of years on multiple fronts like compliance, safety, and institutional-grade adoption.
While it’s anybody’s guess how much Bitcoin will be worth in the next 10 or 20 years, one thing is certain: Bitcoin is here to stay, and most people remain optimistic in the long-term perspective of the cryptocurrency.