Analyst and experts have one of the trickiest jobs in the world. In the cryptocurrency market, they have to let us know what they think or expect in the market over the coming weeks. After they share their thoughts, sometimes their intended message gets lost in the translation and when predictions go wrong, they are blamed by investors whilst they lose credibility.
Sometimes they themselves get their message on price predictions wrong and end up costing investors who depend on their world money. So, how are experts and crypto enthusiasts getting lost in some very simple messages? Two words, possibility and likelihood.
The two seem to mean the same thing but are quite different in meaning, in one hand possibility means that anything could happen, bitcoin going as low as $2,000 or as high as $50,000, are both great examples of possibilities.
On the other hand, bitcoin is likely to rally to $10,000 in the coming months and less likely to bottom at $3,000 is a great example of a likely scenario, and one based on conclusive data.
The Trick To Understanding Crypto Experts
In the case scenario of a possibility, bitcoin could do just about anything, it can rally in an unprecedented way like in 2017 and possibly go even higher, all the way to $50,000, or it could simply bottom out and go all the way to $3,000 or again possibly lower.
All these predictions are based on taking a leap of faith, and the expert’s prediction is based on this. It is highly and always likely that they are based on no relevant or factual information hence the results are almost certainly predictably wrong.
When a pundit makes a prediction based on likelihood, this is a whole different ball game. The prediction is based on relevant information, market trends, and historical events. This is exactly where the clever money goes and the results are nearly perfect every time.
For example, based on previous trends, the listing of cryptocurrencies in big crypto exchanges has always led to a price surge and experts would have called this for Basic Attention Token and 0x which have recently made it to the list of cryptocurrencies to be listed on the Coinbase crypto exchange. The price of the two cryptocurrencies rallied by 25% and 15% respectively, making the crypto market $3 billion richer in valuation.
So, what does the market need to understand? Experts need to be more clear, do they see the likelihood of a particular virtual currency going high or down or do they see the possibility of that particular currency going up or down? If the expert is not clear on this, investors have to be more keen, listen to the expert’s words more keenly, look at their arguments from a liberal point of view and distinguish between the possibilities from the likelihoods. The better you understand the market, and the pundits who understand the market better than you, the better you’ll perform in the market.
Market Recent Slip Up
With that out of the way, what’s happening with bitcoin? Well, unfortunately it’s down again, not the ‘big’ kind of down, just slipping a little further than what we’ve been accustomed to in the last couple of days.
At the time of press, bitcoin was about $6,238 which is not good for investors, this recent fall creeped up on the market on Thursday July 2018 and was the latest test for the market, and unfortunately, the market isn’t holding on too well. For the past few days, the crypto community has been expecting the price to correct itself but the bullish run back to the $6,300-$6,400 price range is slowly slipping away.
According to reports, the fall was triggered by an announcement by payment app Square to pull out its license application to become an industrial loan company. This would allow the payment to operate its platform similarly to a bank account.
However, its influence on the crypto market has been allowing New York traders to trade cryptocurrencies on their platform a trend they planned to continue. Whether this was the reason for the slip or not, one thing is for sure, the market is crying out for some good news.