After a brief pause, it seems that Bitcoin bulls are back at it again trying to break above the $10,000 psychological barrier. There is a lot of resistance around this area and Bitcoin has been rejected 2 times from this area in the last 8 months.
Every rejection from this level has led to a crash in the next weeks, however, it seems that this time bulls are stronger and they are enjoying a lot more trading volume. One thing is certain, Bitcoin halving wasn’t as apocalyptic as some analysts believed.
In fact, it seems to be helping Bitcoin even in the short-term. The daily uptrend is still in play even though bears were able to break below the last low. Bears saw no real continuation and the bulls clearly bought the dip.
BTC is currently trading above both daily EMAs and the MACD is looking for another bull cross within the next 2 days if everything goes to plan. In the last 3 days, Bitcoin has seen increasing bull volume which is a great indicator that the bulls have a lot of strength and that perhaps they will be able to break above $10,000 and remain there.
What Would Be Worst Case Scenario?
At the end of the day even if the bulls seem really strong now, the possibility of another rejection at $10,000 and a double top is real. There are still a lot of longs on BitMEX and Bitfinex which could lead to another long squeeze if things turn ugly. The bulls are hoping to at least see a daily equilibrium pattern with a lower high compared to $10,067 and a higher low from $8,117.
If not, breaking below this low would confirm a daily downtrend and we would be looking for a higher low on the weekly chart which has been heavily dominated by the bulls in the last 8 weeks.
The last low in the weekly chart is all the way down at $3,782, so really anything above this level constitutes a higher low. It’s also important to note that weekly EMAs have crossed bullish this week and the MACD has been bullish for the past 3 weeks.
Things are looking extremely good for Bitcoin in the long-term even though the weekly chart is currently in a downtrend.