On Monday, the crypto market woke up to a multi-billion-dollar slump which saw bitcoin sliding below $7,000 for the first time since May. This wipeout caught investors with an extensive shock since months prior to halving are normally bullish. Also, all hopes were crushed when China took a sudden U-turn regarding crypto-related activities in the country.
Bitcoin has slightly recovered above $7,000 but the hopes for a rally in December are becoming increasingly distant. Yet, the analyst famously known for creating the Stock-to Flow model, PlanB, believes bitcoin can still bounce back to $10,000 before the end of 2019.
A ‘Rare Opportunity’ For Bitcoin To Recapture $10k
A bitcoin drop to $6,600 made recovery to $8,000 seem like a pipe dream, let alone $10k. The result of this crash was investors shivering as the crypto fear and greed index now reads 21, indicating “Extreme Fear”.
According to the Stock-to-Flow model, bitcoin is currently below the estimated mean price at $8,285 by around $1,140 despite the halving being around the corner. This presents a rare opportunity for bitcoin according to PlanB, and he would therefore not be surprised if it “closes 2019 at $10k+”.
At current prices, bitcoin would have to jump by at least 40% in order to reclaim the $10k level. This appears very attainable; in late October, bitcoin shocked the world as it soared by 42% within hours from $7,500 levels to $10k.
Along the same lines, PlanB is not the only analyst who has noticed that this year’s run-up to halving is quite different from the previous years. A week or so ago, Willy Woo cited that this is the first time in history that bitcoin is bearish six months ahead of halving.
Contrarian View: BTC Risks A Bearish December
Regardless of PlanB’s sunny optimism, Adaptive Fund partner Willy Woo still thinks bitcoin hitting $10,000 before year-end is a bit far-stretched. In fact, he noted that December will be bearish if bitcoin doesn’t reclaim $8,300 by the end of November.
“We’d need to close above 8300 by the end of the month (4 more days), or we’ll likely have a bearish December to test new lows, ” Woo said. He, however, pointed out that 2020 will certainly be a great year even if December might come with more downsides.
Billionaire bitcoin bull Michael Novogratz and Willy Woo agree on one thing: bitcoin needs to recover soon to avoid more bloodbath. For Novogratz, bitcoin has until Wednesday to recover to $7,500 lest it risks exacerbating the already precarious situation.
Simply put, bitcoin will be stuck in the less pleasant $6k to $7,400 range if bulls don’t take the reins and push the prices above his modest price target. Novogratz concluded his tweet by reminding his followers that despite this savage dive, bitcoin is still up by 95% year-to-date.
Essentially, bitcoin will need to climb above $7,500 in the near-term based on the analysis by Woo and Novogratz. Failure to do so will leave BTC vulnerable to further moves south – possibly testing the $6k range again.
Market Update
Bitcoin is presently showing signs of bullish exhaustion despite charting a relief rally a few hours ago. At press time, BTC is posting subtle losses of 1.39% on the daily scale. Its market capitalization stands at $129.16 billion, according to Coinmarketcap’s data.
Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP are also down by 1.49% and 1.54% respectively. Other cryptocurrencies like EOS and Cosmos (ATOM) are in the green but Tron (TRX) is noticeably the biggest winner today in the top 20, with 5.04% gains on the day.
