Bitcoin has been struggling recently to reclaim its fresh all-time high of $73,737 after days of sustained selling pressure — can bulls finally turn the tide?
Bitcoin has officially entered a pre-halving “danger zone”, much to holders’ chagrin. According to pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital, This is when the BTC price has historically dipped in the lead-up to its halving event.
Is Another Bitcoin Crash On The Cards?
Bitcoin is now just 26 days away from its fourth halving and could be repeating history with a classic pre-halving retracement.
Known to his 434.3K followers on X as Rekt Capital, the analyst noted that Bitcoin is now in a “danger zone”, where the benchmark cryptocurrency has historically dropped between 20% and 40%.
“It’s been two days since Bitcoin officially entered the ‘danger zone’ (orange) where historical pre-halving retraces have begun. Historically, Bitcoin has performed pre-halving retraces 14-28 days before the halving. Currently, BTC is approximately 26 days away from the halving and has pulled back almost -18% in total since last week.”
As of this writing, the Bitcoin price is just above $63,500 after having lost 2.5% in the past day, according to data from CoinGecko.
Rekt is not sure whether Bitcoin has bottomed out or not. However, the pundit is sure BTC is now within the “danger zone time window,” meaning the cryptocurrency could see further downside ahead of the April block subsidy halving event. The analyst anticipates BTC’s price to plummet toward the $40,000-42,000 region before halving.
As the name suggests, the halving lowers the rate at which new Bitcoin is rewarded to miners by half. It has occurred thrice since Bitcoin debuted in January 2009.
Calm After The Storm
The price of Bitcoin may drop lower in the near term after touching a record level of nearly $74,000 eight days ago, but Rekt Capital is still bullish on the premier crypto.
The analyst observed that BTC tends to reach a bull market top roughly 266-315 days after breaching its old lifetime high. With Bitcoin setting a new record last week, the next bull market peak could happen in 266-315 days — this would be in late November 2024 or very late January 2025.
Rekt, however, points out that Bitcoin is historically taking a bit longer to hit fresh peaks during each cycle. This could then push the peak of the latest bull run to December this year or mid-February 2025.
