ETF analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence have raised their estimates for the launch of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S. to 75% from 65% after Grayscale’s court victory.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Odds Upped To 75%
Grayscale’s landmark victory yesterday has boosted optimism for a spot Bitcoin ETF this year.
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart said in a recent statement that the chances of approval for a Bitcoin ETF have increased to 75% from 65% at the beginning of August.
“James Seyffart and I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this year (95% by the end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w “very little wiggle room,” Balchunas remarked on X (formerly Twitter).
Grayscale’s Win
Grayscale’s consequential court win against the SEC on Tuesday, one which saw a federal appeals court call the SEC’s reasons to thwart the digital asset firm’s application “unlawful,” has been key in the change in sentiment. The court addressed the SEC’s inconsistent treatment of spot Bitcoin ETFs and similar futures-based funds, which the commission has highlighted.
After the court’s decision, Bitcoin’s price swelled by 6% to over $27,000.
The regulator has already witnessed a renewed wave of spot Bitcoin ETF applications over the past few months, including Wall Street titans such as BlackRock and Fidelity. The recent slew of filings comes despite the SEC disapproving every such ETF filing it’s reviewed to date. Many industry pundits think 2023 could prove crucial for the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF.
The deadline for six filings is coming this weekend. However, the deadline is not fixed, as the SEC can extend it if it needs additional time to review a filing. Furthermore, Balchunas and Seyffart are expecting “delay orders” to this week’s deadlines as they believe approval is “highly unlikely so soon after the court decision,” opined Seyffart.
While the latest Grayscale development is a strong bullish signal for the market, the decision on when and if the firm will be able to finally list its GBTC product as a spot ETF in the United States is yet to be made.
