Market analyst João Wedson believes macroeconomic factors could set the stage for the next global bear market as early as 2026.
In a recent analysis shared on X, Wedson outlined a series of leading indicators that historically signal when financial stress begins to build beneath the surface.
According to Wedson, markets rarely crash without warning. The signs usually appear first in liquidity data, dollar strength, and inflation dynamics.
He highlighted the Fed Financial Stress Delta, which tracks the year-over-year change in the Federal Reserve’s Financial Stress Index. He explained that a rapid increase in this measure often points to tightening liquidity and widening credit spreads, which tend to precede major downturns.
Another closely watched gauge is the Financial Stress Index (FSI), which compiles 18 indicators of systemic tension, including yield spreads and market liquidity. Values above zero typically indicate heightened stress.
Historical spikes in this index often occur just before sharp declines across equities and risk assets. Wedson says a correlation remains relevant for crypto markets as they grow more intertwined with global finance.
Similarly, shifts in the Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index and the gap between CPI inflation and market expectations can reveal early cracks in sentiment. A rising dollar generally tightens global liquidity, while inflation exceeding expectations may force central banks to maintain restrictive policies longer than markets anticipate.
At present, Wedson noted that while none of these metrics are “flashing red,” some, particularly those tied to liquidity and inflation, are beginning to show subtle signs of strain. “If history has anything to say, 2025 might be the year when the stage is set — and 2026 could be when we see what really holds up,” he remarked.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade around $111,828, down roughly 15% from its early October all-time high of $126,198, as overall market sentiment remains cautious. The global crypto market capitalization stands near $3.63 trillion, with a Fear & Greed Index reading 25, signaling persistent fear among investors.
