The XRP market has entered a sensitive phase, with a large portion of holders now underwater, raising questions about whether the asset is approaching capitulation or preparing for its next cycle.
On-chain data from Glassnode shows that roughly 36.8 billion XRP are currently held at a loss. Measured in dollar terms, those unrealized losses amount to approximately $50.8 billion at current prices.
Glassnode analysts say the situation reflects a broader shift in market sentiment. XRP recently lost its aggregate holder cost basis, a key psychological level that often triggers stronger selling pressure.
The network’s Spent Output Profit Ratio indicator, measured using a seven-day exponential moving average, has dropped from 1.16 in July 2025 to around 0.96 today. That reading indicates that many investors are now selling their coins at a loss rather than profit, flipping overall on-chain profitability into negative territory.
That said, market commentator EGRAG says previous cycles have typically ended through either price-based or time-based capitulation. Price-based capitulation involves a sharp and rapid percentage drop that quickly flushes out weak holders. By contrast, time-based capitulation unfolds through prolonged sideways consolidation, gradually draining market momentum before the next upward move.
Despite recent weakness, one market watcher revealed that the largest XRP exchange-traded fund in the United States now leads a market with total ETF assets tied to the token that have surpassed $1 billion. Meanwhile, Ripple has expanded its institutional infrastructure, as Ripple Prime recently joined the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) clearing system.
Some industry projections envision cross-border payment flows on XRP infrastructure reaching $10 trillion by 2030. But for now, the market is focused on whether current losses trigger deeper capitulation or mark the final stages of consolidation before the next expansion cycle.
