On 17 July 2017, John McAfee made an insane Bitcoin price prediction when the price was trading around $2244. McAfee backed his prediction with a considerable promise on his twitter page and gave up to 2020 for this price prediction to come to reality.
Looking at the currently available supply and the total supply of bitcoin, it is likely that the demand will soon overtake the supply on a few years which can push the price up as McAfee predicted. Today is 611 days since he made the prediction, and this article will analyze whether he is losing the bet or not.
To know the progress of the prediction, we decided to use the method provided on the bircoin.com website to know the predicted price and the actual value of bitcoin. Using 17/7/2017 as the starting date, $2244 as the starting price, and 0.484095526 daily percentage rise, the $1 million price prediction would come to reality on 12 December 2020. From the website, it was revealed that the price of Bitcoin was supposed to trade today at $42818 going by the rate of the prediction. However, Bitcoin is trading at $ 4,031.12 which is about 90% below the predicted value.
Looking at the days covered and the days ahead in relation to the current price of Bitcoin, the price would need to rise by a huge exponential rate to make the target value a reality. As it stands, the $1 million price prediction has failed, and the possibility of this failure to be overturned is very slim but not impossible in the cryptocurrency world.
The prediction did not go as expected because the predictor failed to recognize the possibility of unforeseen circumstances that hit the market occasionally.
McAfee earlier predicted that Bitcoin would hit $500,000. However, after observing the rate of daily price growth, he decided to update the prediction assuming that the rest of the days would see a high daily price growth. The prediction is not going as expected because of unfavorable government regulations that led to a crackdown in some part of the world as Bitcoin became more famous with its price. Who knows? Maybe a better regulation is on the way which would push the Bitcoin price exponentially to the $1 million predicted price in 2020.