Bitcoin’s latest rebound has reignited the debate over whether a bull trap is forming or a prolonged crypto winter is taking shape. Analysts are split, with on-chain signals and historical cycle patterns offering competing interpretations.
According to Swissblock’s Bitcoin Vector, a classic bull trap would likely feature a sharp rally in Bitcoin’s price accompanied by a decisive surge in network growth.
However, the onset of a crypto winter would be characterized by inconsistent network growth and a prolonged sideways price grind. Such low-volatility phases have historically provided optimal windows for multi-year positioning and quiet accumulation.
Some analysts, including AshCrypto, argue that Bitcoin may be carving out a bottom near its prior cycle peak. In 2022, Bitcoin retested the 2017 all-time high of $19,800, briefly dipped to $15,400, and then established a durable floor.
A similar structure is emerging now, with price slipping below the 2021 high of $69,000 and probing the $60,000 region. If this analogue holds, a relief rally could follow unless equity markets experience a severe downturn that drags crypto lower.
Historically, the first major crash after a cycle rally has often triggered a bull trap, raising the question of whether this time will be different.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 3.67% to $66,822 over 24 hours, leading a recovery fueled by speculation surrounding potential U.S. crypto tax changes, including unconfirmed claims that President Donald Trump supports a 0% tax on U.S.-based crypto projects, as proposed by Eric Trump.
Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management have fallen by over $4 billion in the past 5 weeks, and the Fear and Greed Index is at an extreme fear reading of 11.
Meanwhile, analysts suggest holding above $64,400 could open a retest of $66,285, while failure risks a slide toward $63,350, with resistance looming at the 50-day SMA near $72,420 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level around $78,840.
