A week is down after the third halving event occurred on May 11, 2020, at block height 630,000, and Bitcoin price remains below $10K. $10,000 has been a strong resistance level where it has tried to go beyond three times so far this month. However, nothing came in as a surprise, as the rally after the halvings in the previous events did not immediately begin after executing the ‘GetBlockSubsidy’ function.
Essentially there are market makers, both retailers and institutions, who significantly control the BTC market price. Primarily because the crypto sphere is marred by a lot of speculative trading.
The analogy that purports, ‘buy the rumour, sell the news, then buy the selling of the news and then sell the buying of the selling of the news’ majorly affects the price after the halving event. This is because, before the 2020 halving event, Bitcoin price began a rally that saw it fix slightly above the $10K level. However, the rally was not sustainable as it retrieved back below $9,000 after the halving and now the price seems to be rising steadily.
Trading at around $9,660 at the time of writing, the asset is aiming at reaching $12,000 and above soon to keep miners in profit. According to previously concluded researches, the rally after halving event sustains for the next several months and hitting a new ATH by the following year.
If history is to be trusted, Bitcoin price will make a new all-time-high by 2021. However, it will be nullified if it is severely affected by the ongoing coronavirus disruption.
Basing the argument on technical analysis and using the BTC US dollar derivative, in the 4-hour time frame chart, it has formed a horizontal triangle with high lows and almost equal highs. Any sort of breakout beyond that zone will push the price further towards that direction.
The highest probability at the moment remains an imminent rise since the halving reduced the coin supply by half to 6.25 BTC every 10 minutes from 12 btc/10min. In addition, there have been a profound number of institutional investors diverting their funds to invest in Bitcoin futures, data from CMC has proved it. All these fundamentals will increase the bitcoin market cap, which is a factor in deriving BTC price.
However, it might be a rough road ahead for small and short term traders as volatility is poised to increase and probably experience another dip before attempting to break through the strong $10K level.