Crypto experts are split on whether Bitcoin has reached its peak for this cycle. Veteran trader Peter Brandt suggested a slight chance the flagship crypto topped at the $72K level, per the “exponential decay” trend.
However, another industry pundit believes BTC has a long way to go before reaching its cycle peak and could instead top out at $210,000 before the bull market ends.
Chart Expert Peter Brandt Says BTC Peaked At $72K
Peter Brandt, widely known for accurately predicting Bitcoin’s 2018 crash below $8,000, recently delved into the concept of historical Exponential Decay, highlighting a worrying pattern of decreasing momentum in Bitcoin’s bull market cycles over time.
Based on this pattern, each successive BTC cycle’s peak price was only about 20% of the previous cycle’s peak gain. Data indicates that this trend has occurred during the past three Bitcoin market cycles.
“Worded another way, 80% of the exponential energy of each successful bull market cycle has been lost,” Brandt opined.
Based on this decay rate, Brandt projects a potential top of around $72,723 for the current cycle — a figure already attained as Bitcoin hit its ever-newer all-time high of $73,737 in March. So, if exponential decay theory is a guide, Bitcoin has already reached a local maximum and is bound to plummet.
Interestingly, Brandt later assigned only a 25% probability to this theory, putting more emphasis on his February report. In this report, the legendary chartist shared a chart predicting a bull market until September-October 2025.
Bitcoin Power Law Predicts $210,000 Bitcoin Top
Former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi also poured cold water on the exponential decay theory, by bringing up his own Bitcoin Power Law model. This is a long-term price model that assumes Bitcoin is bound by the laws of physics to forecast Bitcoin’s future price. Santostasi believes Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory follows a “power law” relationship with time.
Remarking on Brandt’s decay theory, he posited, “We have only 3 data points if we exclude the pre-halving period and actually only 2 data points if we consider the ratios,” adding, “This is hardly enough data to do any significant statistical analysis.”
Santostasi calculated the percentage deviation of price tops from the power law trend and then extrapolated a different exponential decay pattern. Using the figures extrapolated from the Genesis block, this price model forecasts BTC will peak at around $210,000 in the fourth cycle in December 2025. He tips the bottom for the next cycle at around $83K based on historical trends.
